Quick definition
The model-estimated probability that a trade will be profitable at expiration, given current option prices and implied volatility. Probability of Profit is derived from the options market itself, not from a forecast.
How it is estimated
The most common approximation uses delta at each breakeven strike to bound the profitable range, then integrates the assumed distribution across that range. Real trading platforms usually publish POP with a specified assumption (lognormal, empirical) — traders should read the fine print, because different assumptions can shift POP by several points on the same position.
POP is not edge
A high-POP trade with a small max win and a large max loss can carry negative expected value. Credit-selling structures often show POP in the 70–90% range while paying out modestly and risking a lot — this is by design. POP has to be read alongside expected value, not in place of it.
How Treeova uses it
Conviction Scoring combines POP with expected value, current IV Rank, and structural risk before assigning a trade quality. An agent that only chases POP is easy to build and easy to blow up; Treeova's scoring layer penalizes setups where the payoff geometry does not compensate for a rare but painful loss.